Whoever the Indiana Republican party nominates to challenge for Evan Byah’s open US Senate seat - their options all have warts. This was nicely broken down in a recent National Journal column by Charlie Cook who was lamenting the validity and impact of the Tea Party movement and its potential role in the upcoming primaries.
Indiana is a similar case. If former GOP Sen. Dan Coats had never retired and was simply running for re-election, he would be in strong shape.
But even having retired, he would have been better off had he gone back to Indiana after his stint as ambassador to Germany, instead of moving to Northern Virginia to become a Washington lobbyist.
And if he weren’t on videotape effectively telling a North Carolina audience he intended to retire there but please don’t tell the folks back in Indiana, he would have been stronger still.
Suffice to say Coats is a bit damaged, and House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence might have been a better candidate.
Even hindered by baggage, though, Coats is probably a decent bet to win the open seat against Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth, the tough former sheriff who traded in his badge for a congressional pin in 2006.
But if Republicans nominate a perennially weak candidate like former Rep. John Hostettler, or perhaps a Tea Party candidate, Ellsworth could be well-positioned for the open seat.
Hostettler had an ugly habit of raising little money in off years, he had a lousy campaign organization, and every two years the national party had to bail his sorry rear end out — until he lost to Ellsworth in 2006.
Hostettler made no friends at the National Republican Congressional Committee. Indeed, when he finally did lose, the feeling seemed to be, “Good riddance. In a cycle or two we’ll get a Republican in that seat who will be worth defending and won’t need to be bailed out every election year.”
As a Senate candidate, Hostettler is likely to be a disaster, unless he has gotten a complete political makeover. He or a Tea Party type could lose what otherwise would be a fairly safe race.
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