The Fort Wayne Journal Gazette’s political columnist has some tough words for Republicans looking to hold on to the seat vacated by the embattled Rep. Mark Souder. Specifically, don’t expect voters to forgive and forget.
When a popular lawmaker dies in office, the candidate most closely associated with him or her has a huge advantage. Think of the special election won by Andre Carson, the nephew of the Indianapolis congresswoman who died in 2007. In Pennsylvania last week, the protégé of the late Rep. John Murtha won a special election despite the anti-Washington atmosphere.
In both cases, voters were motivated more by whether they liked the lawmakers who died in office than by what they thought of the potential successors.
An admitted affair from a conservative “family values” pol taints the Republican brand. Some Republican voters would just stay home in disgust with ’em all. Republican-leaning independents would be much more open to a Democrat. And Democrats would vote with glee. That’s a recipe for Democratic victory.
So from the Republican perspective, it’s best to put as much distance as possible between the memory of a tear-stained Souder reading his mea culpa from a podium and the special election to replace him.